Model description
The Models are characterized as an analytical evaluation tool that focuses of the medium- to long-term market development (around 1 to 5 years ahead) of a global shipping market segment. The Models operate with a time-step of one quarter, and thus depicts tendencies and trends in the future developments. Short-term movements, typically seasonal movements, are thus not represented.
The core of the model is an evaluation of the supply of and demand for tonnage of a certain ship type and size-range. Please refer to the section "Market Segments Covered" for more details.
Based on the historical supply/demand-evaluation analytical models for freight rates, charter rates, and second-hand values have been formulated. These models are then used to project rates and values into the future.
The model is fully updated on a quarterly basis by MSR - including a possible scenario of the future market development. However, you will be able to adjust key parameters to your own opinion, and thus formulate your own scenarios and forecasts.
The main results of freight rates, charter rates, and second-hand values, as well as major input- and intermediate parameters, are displayed in graphs, in summary tables, and for the main results as time-series. The time-series are intended for your further calculations.
The parameters that may be controlled by the user in the forward part of the Model, depending on the market segment, are, for the time being:
- Trade/tonnage demand growth
- Demand fluctuations
- Timing of cyclic up- nad down-turns
- Permanent slow-steaming
- Port congestion
- Cancellations of current newbuilding orders
- Contracting of newbuildings
- Delivery time or delays
- Removal/scrapping of tonnage
- Lay-up decision T/C-rates
- Idle capacity
- Bunker prices
Other parameters may not, in the current version of the Model, be controlled by the user. The most important parameters are:
- The underlying economic scenario regarding business cycles
- Current overcapacity
The Model is implemented as a spreadsheet.
The Model is still under development.
Please note that when downloading the Model you agree to takeover all responsibilities of the results produced by the model - including the pre-prepared scenario supplied with the model by MSR.