Market Segments Covered
Currently MSR's Forecast Model Services covers the container- and dry bulk shipping markets. In the near future also the oil shipping market will be added to our service.
The Container Shipping Market:
Tonnage demand is based on estimates of the growth in global seaborne container trade. This is forecast on a trend-basis from projections of containerised goods imports by major geographical regions on the basis of assumptions of future economic growth, trade-elasticity and globalisation effects. The trend in tonnage demand may be influenced (heightened) over time by the influence of permanent slow-steaming. The ”actual”, or “observed” tonnage demand is forecast as a deviation from this trend taking into account a possible development in the world economy, i.e. the business cycles. Other factors, e.g. port congestion influencing the productivity of TEU-slots are not included in the current version of the Model. Short-term movements in tonnage demand caused by seasonal variations are disregarded.
The supply of tonnage includes ships classified as fully cellular ships and semi-container ships or multi-purpose ships of 2,000 DWT (or GT) and above. The distinction between semi-container/multi-purpose ship and other types of “general cargo” ships is not stringent. Possible idle or laid-up ships that directly reduce the TEU-slot capacity of the fleet are considered. Seven market sub-segments are regarded, which are defined by ship-size ranges: Up to 500 TEU, 500-1,000 TEU, 1,000-2,000 TEU, 2,000-3,000 TEU, 3,000 TEU and up to panamax beam, post-panamax ships up to 10,000 TEU, super post-panamax of 10,000+ TEU. The demand by segment is primarily estimated from the supply development as well as the overall tonnage demand development. In the case of the size-ranges of the progressive larger ship sizes, tonnage demand is assumed being governed by the development in supply in the introduction phase, thus reducing the growth rates in demand of size-ranges of smaller ship sizes.
The freight- and charter market models are derived from the historical gap between supply and demand of tonnage, a market sentiment factor, and in the case of fright rates also from bunker prices. The model of second-hand values is derived from the development in charter rates.
The Dry Bulk Shipping Market
Tonnage demand is estimated from trend-projections of the traded volume of the five major bulk cargoes, minor bulk cargo and Chinese domestic trade. The corresponding tonnage demand takes into account estimated changes in trading distances and ship productivity. The devision by size-ranges (Handy-, handymax-, panamax- and cape-size) is partly based on historical data and partly on own estimates. Consistant data to support all the details indicated here are not available.
Tonnage supply is projected from the current fleet of each size-range by adding deliveries of the current orderbook, excluding assumed future cancelations. Furthermore, assumed future contracting of newbuildings are added when delivered, and assumed future removals (scrappings) are subtracted from the projected fleet. Port congestion is projected on a trend-basis from the current situation. Part of the fleet (by size-range) may be laid-up according to a certain minimum time charter rate
The spot- and charter market earnings models are derived from the historical gap between supply and demand of tonnage and a market sentiment factor. The model of second-hand values is derived from the development in charter rates.